China's 2017 Alumina Output to Rise 16%, Capacity to Expand 9.5%: Antaike

China's alumina output in 2017 is expected to rise 16% from 2016 on anticipated new capacities and expansions, despite the planned 30% winter cuts over mid-November 2017 to mid-March 2018, an analyst from state nonferrous information division Beijing Antaike told S&P Global Platts Tuesday.

Alumina output in 2017 is now expected to reach 69.8 million mt by year end, up from around 60 million mt in 2016 and also higher than an earlier forecast of 67 million-68 million mt, the analyst said.

The country's alumina production capacity is also expected to increase 9.5% year on year in 2017 to 81 million mt/year, up from around 74 million mt/year at end 2016 and also up from a previous forecast of 80 million mt, the analyst said.

An estimated 6.1 million-6.2 million mt/year of new alumina capacity is expected to be completed by end 2017 across five refinery projects -- 2 million mt/year from Beihai Weiqiao, 2 million mt/year from Xinfa Xiaoyi, 1 million mt/year from Shanxi East Hope, 600,000 mt/year from Liulin Senze and 550,000 mt/year from Chalco's Xinghua refinery.

More new alumina projects and expansions are also expected in 2018, which could total around 5 million mt/year and bring China's overall alumina capacity to 11.1 million mt/year next year.

"But this is only a preliminary review; it will still depend on how the winter cuts pan out and what changes may happen next year," the analyst said. "Right now, the 2+26 regions have an estimated 31 million-32 million mt/year of alumina capacity. If Luoyang and Sanmenxia are included, that could mean 36 million-38 million mt/year ... and Luliang has another 12 million-13 million mt/year capacity. We must see how much is actually cut," the analyst added.

For 2018, Antaike currently expects alumina output to reach 74 million mt and capacity 86 million mt/year. China's consumption of smelter-grade alumina is expected to total around 73 million mt/year in 2018, compared with a forecast of 70 million mt/year in 2017.