Will the China Alumina Price Hit 4,000 Yuan/t by Year-end?

Chinese alumina prices soared to multi-year highs in October and, with few market participants doubting the sustainability of the ascent, the question is now whether prices will hit 4,000 yuan per tonne by year-end.

Market participants spoken to by Metal Bulletin are also watching the strong performance of the London Metal Exchange aluminium price ahead of LME Week starting October 29. Should the rally last, it could boost the aluminium price on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and in turn lend support to Chinese spot alumina prices.

The last time China’s alumina price breached 4,000 yuan per tonne was in February 2008, when Metal Bulletin’s assessment hit 4,300-4,450 yuan ($647-670) per tonne. Having climbed to 3,600-3,750 yuan ($542-564) per tonne on October 19, the Chinese alumina price is closer to regaining its glory, although it halted its ascent this week and held steady in the weekly Metal Bulletin pricing session on October 26. Government environmental crackdowns on pollution are behind the price rallies that began in August...

China’s alumina imports pick up as import window reopens

Chinese alumina imports revived in the third quarter of the year, after falling to a multi-year low in the second quarter, according to China customs data released on Tuesday October 24.

China imported 847,026 tonnes of alumina in the July-September period, up 82% from last quarter. In September, Chinese imports came to 275,385 tonnes, up 93% from same month last year. The reopening of the import window since early August and spot supply tightness of locally produced alumina helped to boost buying appetite in China. Chinese alumina prices moved up almost 42% between the beginning of August and the end of September, according to Metal Bulletin assessments.  Metal Bulletin’s Chinese alumina quotation was last assessed at 3,600-3,750 yuan ($542-565) per tonne on October 19, slightly up from 3,600-3,700 yuan one week ago. Meanwhile, Metal Bulletin’s fob Australia alumina benchmark climbed up to $481.08 per tonne on October...