China’s 2016 Alumina Output to Rise 5% on Year to 61 Mil Mt: Antaike

China’s alumina output in 2016 is expected to reach 61 million mt, up 5.2% from realized output of around 58 million mt in 2015, an analyst from state nonferrous information division Beijing Antaike said Tuesday.

The forecast figure was also up 17.3% from the 52 million mt produced in 2014 and up 30% from from 47 million mt in 2013, Antaike figures showed.

China’s alumina production capacity is also expected to increase to 74 million mt/year by end 2016, up 7.2% from 69 million mt/year at end 2015, the Antaike analyst said.

The country’s alumina capacity stood at 65 million mt/year at end 2014 and 60 million mt/year at end 2013.

The forecast increase in output was attributed mainly to numerous refinery restarts of idled capacity earlier this year, as well as several new refinery expansions and startups, which were also reflected in the capacity expansion forecast for 2016.

The added refinery capacities are located mainly in Shanxi, Shandong and Yunnan provinces, the Antaike analyst said.

In Shanxi province, East Hope started up a new 800,000 mt/year refinery earlier this year and Chalco a 1 million mt/year plant.

In Shandong, Weiqiao Aluminum has expanded by about 2 million mt/year and down south, Yunnan Aluminum is expected to double alumina capacity to 1.6 million mt/year by end 2016 when expansion works are completed.

“But that’s only new capacities being completed, not all will be fully ramped up by year end, so actual output will not increase accordingly,” the analyst said. As for earlier idled alumina capacity, at least 7 million mt/year has been restarted out of the total 9 million-10 million mt/year that was halted between end 2105 and early 2016, the analyst said.

“We expect around 8 million mt/year of idled capacity will be restarted this year at most, as some will be too outmoded and costly to resume,” the analyst added. DOMESTIC PRICE PRESSURE

The rising alumina capacity and output in 2016 is expected to put pressure on domestic alumina prices for the rest of the year, although declines will be limited by steady demand from smelters and firm domestic aluminum prices.

“There is definitely pressure on alumina with restarts and new capacities, but ultimately we must see how smelter demand holds up for the year. If there’s steady to increasing demand from smelters and if metal prices can stay firm or rise further, then alumina will follow,” the analyst said.

“Alumina prices in China rose too fast earlier, so it’s normal for prices to have a correction period to balance off,” the analyst added.

The Platts China ex-works Shanxi spot alumina daily assessment stood at Yuan 1,980/mt ($301) full cash terms Monday, down Yuan 30/mt week on week, and down Yuan 15/mt from a month ago. Ex-works Henan and Guangxi alumina prices stood at Yuan 2,000-2,020/mt cash and Yuan 1,870-1,880/mt cash respectively.

The front-month aluminum contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed at Yuan 12,500/mt Tuesday, up from Yuan 12,365/mt last week and down from Yuan 12,740/mt a month ago.

China produced 31 million-32 million mt of primary aluminum in 2015 and imported 4.65 million mt of alumina, earlier data from Antaike and the General Administration of Customs showed.