Asia Alumina: Australia Rangebound Despite Stronger LME Aluminum

Australian alumina daily assessment at $234/mt FOB on Monday was unchanged from Friday, despite a steep rise in LME aluminum in the last two days.

There have been rumblings of renewed interest in China for October shipments, with buyers guidance at $235-$240/mt CIF Lianyungang/China main port.

Chinese smelters sometimes stock up on alumina during the fourth quarter ahead of the peak winter conditions, when blizzards and blustery winds have been known to slow down the rail network. However the seasonal restocking does not occur faithfully every year, depending instead on market fundamentals.

On Monday, a Chinese smelter said it was not unreasonable for Australian material to fetch Yuan 200/mt or $30/mt more than China domestic supply, in import parity terms.

At the lower end of the scale, other Chinese smelters said they would not go over $210-$220/mt FOB Australia for imported tons.

The China ex-works Shanxi alumina assessment continued Monday at Yuan 1,710/mt ($258/mt) in full cash terms, unchanged from Friday, but up Yuan 10/mt week on week, and down Yuan 170/mt from a month ago.

A potential cutback by Henan refinery, Kaiman Aluminium, has strengthened market sentiment and reversed the recent downtrend in spot alumina prices, sources said.

The Kaiman refinery, which produces 1.6 million-2 million mt/year of alumina, has been asked by the state environmental department to shut down 1.1 million mt/year of its capacity which has not reached required standards, domestic news reports and market sources said. “There are plans to partially shut capacity for maintenance due to environmental concerns,” a Kaiman source said Monday, but declined to provide further details.

“Current prices are all above Yuan 1,700/mt again in Shanxi and Henan,” a Henan smelter said, indicating offers at Yuan 1,716/mt in Shanxi and Yuan 1,721/mt in Henan, cash to partial credit terms, on Monday.