China Alumina Production Capacity to Increase in 2016

At 14 p.m., December 18, 2015, "Staple Commodity Market Summit Forum 2016", namely the annual conference about non-ferrous industry development forum under new situation was held at a plaza hotel in Shanghai, and all goes well in on-site conference.

This forum makes thorough elaboration on the influence of China's economic situation on the non-ferrous metals market, existing investment opportunities and highlights of policies, industry trends of financialization, the deduction of the downstream consumption structure, hedging strategy and other related themes. Among them, a analyst from Shanghai reviews the aluminum market in 2015, and makes a forecast about the price trend in 2016.

He forecasts that in 2015, China's alumina output is 58 million tons and production capacity of 69 million tons, and in 2016, China alumina production capacity will continue to increase, mainly from Shandong province, Shanxi Province and Yunnan province. It is expected that new production capacity is about 7 million tons. In the aspect of alumina import, he predicts that in 2015 the whole alumina imports will be about 4.5 million tons or so, a larger decline compared with the imports of 5.276 million tons in 2014.

"In 2015, the prices of Chinese alumina have declined to 950-1000 RMB/ton, but with the weakening demand, new production capacity continues to increase, and the import amount of alumina has recovered. We forecast that in 2016, the price of alumina will keep stable, or may increase slightly but the rebound height is limited."

In 2015, the operating rate and orders of some aluminum enterprises are both declined. The decreasing processing fee can intuitively reflect the market demand. To sum up, it is difficult to alter the oversupply situation on China's aluminum market in 2016. That is, the low cost will maintain; The consumption growth still lacks highlights; The rebound in price may be limited.