Australian Alumina to Greet Stable Aluminum Prices After Price Boom

Australian alumina price recovered from lows at the beginning of this year. Since the middle of February, it had launched the crazy price boom pattern for a month. In the second half of March, the FOB price of Australia alumina has already risen from the early 197 dollars/ton to $249 / ton.

As the rebound of Chinese alumina prices comes to an end, Australia's alumina has also been in the quiet period. Recently, the FOB price is $248 - $249 / ton, and the market focuses on the Chinese market, including domestic prices as well as the rehabilitation of alumina enterprises.

It is understood that the recent domestic resale price is $261 per metric ton (CIF). At the same time, there are also some sellers expressing that the current market price should be in the $259 - $260 / ton. Because the current import price is still higher than the domestic price, and the recent demand of domestic manufacturers is weakened for imports of alumina, but is increased for domestic alumina.

The market will continue to focus on the trend of domestic alumina market. In the support of aluminum  price and alumina supply, alumina prices will continue to rise in April, but the rise will be narrowed.

In alumina supply, the re-production progress is relatively slow, combined with the production of other flexible production capacity, so it is expected that it will achieve 1.5-200 million tons. The increase of supply is scheduled to begin in late April.

New production capacity, including Chinalco, East Hope and other projects are expected to start the impact on the supply. Therefore, the domestic alumina supply will remain stable in April, and still support the alumina prices.